Mass Deportation - The Economic Implications

If case you have not noticed Trump is trying to do everything he said he was going to do on the campaign trail. His campaign promises have actually been one of the few things he does not lie about.

He is now creating a deportation force and wants to use the National Guard to create a massive roundup and deportation. He told everyone on numerous occasions that this was what he was going to do.

There are approximately 11 million illegal immigrants in the United States. To put things in perspective, the following states...

1. New Hampshire
2. Maine
3. Rhode Island
4. Montana
5. Delaware
6. South Dakota
7. North Dakota
8. Alaska
9. DC
10. Vermont
11. Wyoming

...add up to a little under 10 million people.

Even if he only deported 15% of the undocumented immigrants that would be the equivalent of removing all the people from Idaho.

The economic consequences of eliminating 15% of the undocumented immigrant population (roughly 1.65 million people would have a significant impact on our economy. To put this number in economic perspective, in 2016 the great state of Georgia passed an immigration enforcement law HB 87. This law resulted in labor shortages that resulted in $140,000,000 in agricultural losses, as crops were left to rot in the fields. According to Forbes magazine...

"The Pew Hispanic Center estimated that some 425,000 illegal immigrants lived in Georgia when the legislation was passed – seventh highest in the nation. Those numbers are now down, as hoped for, but the state’s economy is paying a heavy price." They went on to say, " according to a University of Georgia study, farmers were about 40 percent short of the number of workers they needed to harvest last year’s crop."

So let's do some simple math. The loss of 170,000 workers in Georgia resulted in an economic loss of 140 million dollars. And this is just one facet of the economic loss to the state of Georgia. The state of Georgia has a sales tax of 4%.  Millions of dollars in sales tax was lost due to these 170,000 missing workers.

It is estimated that undocumented immigrants account for 11.8 billion dollars in state and local tax revenues. [Source: The Financial Times]

Many of you may not be aware that a many illegal immigrants pay Federal income tax. They pay Social Security and Medicare taxes that their employers also match (It should also be noted that while illegal immigrants are paying Social Security and Medicare taxes are not entitled to the benefits.)

According to a Seattle Times story from December 29, 2011

"Social Security officials keep a record of wages that do not match up with real names and numbers in their system. The record is called the earnings suspense file. In 2009, the last year for which figures are available, employers reported wages of $72.8 billion for 7.7 million workers who could not be matched to legal Social Security numbers."

There was a similar story published on April 5th, 2005 in the New York Times. The point I am making is that illegal immigrants account for billions of dollars a year flowing into our economy. 

But, I want to point something else out to you. The New York Times story dates back to over a decade ago. Reality is that we have knowingly been using the labor of illegal immigrants for many decades now. Our Federal government has been collecting taxes for a long time from people that they know are illegal immigrants. For all this time they have buried their head in the sand and done nothing. 

During the time they have done nothing illegal immigrants have had had kids that have grown up. This is the only country they know. Is is really moral or fair to deport them back to countries they have never lived in? 

Mass deportation will have significant consequences on our economy. It is also a moral issue as well. 

Immigration is an extremely complex subject that requires serious thought and action. It will not be solved by building a wall or mass deportation. It will only be resolved by tackling the hard work that takes into account the economic impact that 11 million undocumented workers have on our economy. And, also taking into account the impact that our actions will have on these families.